The Shadow of the Financial Crisis: Socio‑Economic and Welfare Policy Development and Fear of Crime in Europe. A Random Effects Within‑Between Model Analysis of the European Social Survey, 2002–2018

The Shadow of the Financial Crisis: Socio-Economic Impact on Fear of Crime in Europe

Understanding Fear of Crime Beyond Crime Rates

Fear of crime has been a topic of research since the 1960s, recognized as a complex social phenomenon that affects both individual well-being and societal cohesion. Traditionally, fear of crime was linked directly to crime rates or personal victimization experiences. However, recent studies suggest that fear of crime often expresses broader social insecurities rather than reflecting actual crime risks alone. These generalized insecurities include anxieties about economic stability, social trust, and welfare state effectiveness.

The 2008 Financial Crisis and Its Socio-Economic Fallout

The 2008 financial crisis caused widespread economic disruption across Europe, resulting in increased unemployment, economic insecurity, and social policy adjustments, including austerity measures in some countries. This crisis varied in intensity among European nations, with Southern and Eastern Europe generally experiencing harsher effects than Northern and Western Europe. Previous research has shown that the crisis negatively impacted political trust, mental health, and support for populist movements, but its effect on fear of crime remained unclear.

Investigating the Link Between Economic Conditions and Fear of Crime

Using data from nine waves (2002–2018) of the European Social Survey covering 27 countries, the study applied hybrid multilevel modeling to analyze how changes in socio-economic indicators — such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, income inequality — and welfare policies affected fear of crime. The key finding was that while cross-country differences in fear of crime correlate strongly with welfare policies and economic status, changes over time within countries showed little effect on fear levels except for homicide rates.

Welfare Policies as Buffers Against Social Insecurity

The research highlights the crucial role of welfare state policies, especially non-cash or in-kind social expenditures aimed at families and children (such as child care services and home help), in reducing fear of crime. Countries with higher levels of such social spending consistently reported lower fear of crime. These welfare policies appear to mitigate generalized social insecurities by supporting individuals in mastering their lives actively, rather than merely providing passive income support.

Bastian Schwind-Wagner_Follow "The 2008 financial crisis impacted European economies and societies deeply but did not significantly increase fear of crime over time. Instead, robust welfare policies providing in-kind support for families appear to play a stronger role in reducing public insecurities related to crime."

Actual Crime Rates Versus Perceived Insecurity

Contrary to some assumptions that fear of crime is disconnected from actual criminal activity, the study found that changes in homicide rates had a significant positive association with fear of crime within countries over time. This suggests that serious violent crimes are more influential on public perceptions than overall crime rates. However, other socio-economic changes related to the financial crisis did not lead to immediate or medium-term increases in fear of crime.

Stability of Fear of Crime Over Time

One notable conclusion is the remarkable stability of fear of crime over the studied period despite socio-economic upheavals. While there were slight increases in fear around the financial crisis years (2008–2012), the general trend was a decline in fear across Europe. This stability indicates a resilience in European societies’ perceptions of crime-related insecurity and suggests that fear of crime is deeply embedded within cultural and welfare state contexts rather than being highly sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations.

Implications for Policy and Research

The study provides evidence that welfare policies geared towards empowering families and children are effective tools to reduce generalized insecurities reflected as fear of crime. It also points out that focusing solely on economic indicators or crime rates may overlook important social policy factors shaping public perceptions. Future research should explore how social insecurities develop across individuals’ life courses and examine the lasting effects of welfare support on societal cohesion and safety perceptions.

Dive deeper

• Research ¦ Natter, L.M. The Shadow of the Financial Crisis: Socio-Economic and Welfare Policy Development and Fear of Crime in Europe. A Random Effects Within-Between Model Analysis of the European Social Survey, 2002–2018. Soc Indic Res 176, 473–498 (2025). ¦ Link ¦ licensed under the following terms, with no changes made: CC BY 4.0